Democrats winning in 2028 have less than 2 years to prevent another round of authoritarianism
We have to have a bold short term plan and all Democrats behind that plan.
Just some of what FDR did in his first 100 days (a phrase he also coined):
- Invented fire side chat addresses to the entire country
- Effectively created federal deposit insurance to immediately stop the banking crisis and also regulations to reign in banks
- Initial 500 million dollars (around $12 billion today) for soup kitchens, blankets, employment schemes, and nursery schools
- Repealed prohibition (well allowed the sale of 3.2 percent beer and wine but close enough)
- Leaving the “gold standard” — disallowed requiring repayment in gold. Britain had already left the gold standard in September 1931.
- Securities Act to federally prevent stock market fraud
- Tennessee Valley Authority — Tennessee was a battleground state where Democrats had gained seats. During his presidential campaign FDR said
The water power of the State should belong to all the people. The title to this power must rest forever in the people. No commission–not the Legislature itself–has any right to give, for any consideration whatever, a single potential kilowatt in virtual perpetuity to any person or corporation whatever. It is the duty of our representative bodies to see that this power is transferred into usable electrical energy and distributed at the lowest possible cost…and no inordinate profits must be allowed to those who act as the people’s agent in bringing this power to their homes and workshops. …
- Required all Americans to hand over to the government all their gold worth more than $100 for payment at a set price per ounce. After the government grabbed the gold, it set a higher price in 1934 thus devaluing the dollars that people had received. Laffer and coauthors say the “gold confiscation was a wealth tax, pure and simple.”
That last bullet point comes from a Cato blog arguing that higher taxes prolonged the Great Depression. However the only salient point here is that FDR avoided authoritarianism and countries like Germany, Italy, and Japan did not.
Many people know the story of Germany becoming Nazi, but Japan and Italy were democracies for men until Great Depression pressures in 1932 Japan and this guy hit Italy in 1922.
FDR’s bold plans allowed Democrats to stay in power:
The results of 1932 echoed through the next two Senate election cycles. In 1934, when the Republican senators who were swept into office with the 1928 election of President Hoover stood for reelection, Democrats picked up 10 more seats for a total of 69. In 1936 that number rose to 76
There might be any number of policies that long term restore the economy, reduce racism and misogyny, or counter Christian white nationalism, but those policies are secondary to first doing what it takes to avoid a dictator.
Can the bold plan be to give MAGA what it wants?
First that depends what you believe MAGA is after:
Generally, there are at least two factors that are believed to propel right-wing movements. Perhaps the most widely accepted resides in economics: the working-class whites thesis. The dominant narrative is that economic anxiety, driven by an economy that leaves them behind, pushes working-class whites to join right-wing movements. Another popular explanation for the emergence of these kinds of movements is embedded in identity. To wit: right-wing movements are borne of threats to the dominant culture, where the members of this group feel as though their way of life is becoming eclipsed.
FDR was giving aid somewhat earmarked for white people so his strategies did have a white supremacy compromise to them. First, who even knows if such a strategy would work now or the aid would have to be earmarked for white men or Christian white men or Christian white men in red states.
Second, even if you manage to give MAGA what it wants that does not necessarily give you success in a midterm election. Its hard to get a voting boost by doing exactly what your competition promises and easy to lose voters in your base. FDR’s brand of populism was not available from Republicans of his day.
Third, what MAGA is after is very likely impossible. FDR eventually found nationalism and white supremacy contradictory:
The end of neoslavery came as a direct result to the attack on Pearl Harbor. When President Franklin Roosevelt convened his cabinet to discuss retaliation, the main issue was propaganda and the Japanese ability to effectively embarrass America for the treatment of blacks in the South. Immediately President Roosevelt passed a congressional law criminalizing lynching. Four days after Pearl Harbor, the U.S. attorney general ordered a memorandum that instructed all federal prosecutors to aggressively prosecute all cases of involuntary servitude.
Or more recently the elite business class of MAGA may want white female sex slaves in contradiction of white supremacy.
Can we go incremental and hope for a two term president and think about this again in 2036?
Not without risking American democracy. America’s flirtation with authoritarianism did not begin with Donald Trump and is not going to end with Donald Trump.
Of course there was Andrew Jackson in the past, but even more recently there was George W. Bush. Sure Bush didn’t manage to be as domestically threatening as Trump, but he had the supreme court illegally calling an election, lying his way into an unpopular Iraq war, and many of the same cruel reduce government and give to the rich policies as Trump. Plus a George W. Bush political clone elected in 2032 could easily threaten democracy far more than a 79 year old, declining health Trump.
Does the bold short term plan have to reduce inequality?
The book Goliath’s Curse argues that the longer term plan must reduce inequality or else the threat of societal collapse stays the same and is eventually realized. Unfortunately, that kind of analysis is not available for short term vote increasing plans in democracies as democracies don’t have such a long history.
However if the longer term plan must reduce inequality and the first 100 days have a lot of longer term impact then even the shorter term plan probably must reduce inequality also.