The automation apocalypse is the existential event — not Trump

The automation apocalypse is the existential event — not Trump

Not to excuse the fascists and religious zealots that are destroying the country, but there might be a reason they are against science and logic.

Three points about the over 40 million Americans at risk of losing their jobs to automation

1. The future is bleak but so is the recent past

• Peace dividend after the end of the Cold War threatened soldiers and only very unpopular US military involvement since then
• “Free” trade / outsourcing and broken unions
• Even defund the police part of pressure on manual labor

2. Massive inequality compared to more educated labor and cost of education and health care are dramatically increasing

3. Zero representation in government

• Even a Mamdani, AOC, or Sanders do not have policies that restore a manual labor worker to dignity. Free tuition and health care would help but you still need food, shelter, and a college that let’s you in. Plus as discussed below everyone having a degree doesn’t automatically increase demand for those degrees.
• George W. Bush and Donald Trump are rich nepo babies who don’t help blue collar regardless of limiting their vocabulary or wearing a cowboy hat. Reducing immigration at best just keeps the situation from getting worse. Restoring manufacturing isn’t happening and only helps if the factories are not automated. These are not cures for manual labor.
• What is representation? Regulating automation technologies like Waymo? Hopefully something better than encouraging blue collar workers to join the downstairs of an upstairs / downstairs economy.

In 2024, non-college whites favored Trump by a 66% to 32% margin. While April 2026 polling from Fox News shows this support has softened to 49% approval, they remain the load-bearing pillar of his coalition. For which Trump makes a big deal about no tax on tips and no tax on overtime but there is also no increase in minimum wage.

The divide in America will only get worse after the next election

Even supposing that Americans, like Hungarians, realize that dictators are bad there will be ever increasing pressure on high risk of automation jobs. These jobs cannot be offset by an increase in college education jobs because people in the low education pool cannot get the new jobs. It’s effectively a caste system.

More education is not always the answer

Key aspects of PhD labor conditions in Korea:

• Manual Labor in Labs: Many doctoral candidates report being used by professors for research farms, machinery operation, and personal tasks. The academic culture often allows for extreme working hours (8 am to 11 pm or midnight) and requires high loyalty to supervisors.
• Low-Wage Trap: With a record high of nearly 20,000 new doctorates in 2025, the market is over-saturated, leading to high-qualified individuals taking low-wage positions.
• Shift to Skilled Manual Work: Some reports suggest shifting to technical, high-paying manual trades (e.g., plumbing, construction, electrical work) as a more viable alternative to underpaid academic positions, as these fields face labor shortages.

If it can happen there it can happen in America also. Furthermore it is the sense of zero sum game, and not one’s relative wealth, that is the largest contributing factor to Korean fascism:

This shift toward the far-right among young Koreans is not driven by marginalization or rising inequality. Rather, it is a reaction from privileged youth — those resisting what they perceive as a loss of their advantage. In fact, over the past decade, inequality indicators like the Gini coefficient have improved in Korea. The significance of educational pedigree has also declined. In the past, elite men from top universities in Seoul could expect good jobs without much trouble. Today, they must compete with women in the labor market. While men still earn more on average, women’s income growth has outpaced that of men over the same period. The pace of job creation hasn’t kept up with the level of competition, leading those who were previously better off to feel like their opportunities are shrinking in a “zero-sum game.”

How long do we have before the end of manual labor?

It somewhat doesn’t matter. The point is that blue collar workers believe, rightly, that things are bad and will only get worse for their way of life. They believe that they are playing a zero sum game where the only way forward is to beat out immigrants or women or other races.

In 2022 the US Bureau of Labor Statistics posted the above website that recommends looking into jobs like industrial and heavy machinery mechanic and message therapist. However they list the former as paying under $60K and the latter as paying under $50K.

Those are skilled jobs but in 1968 a non-skilled, unionized automotive factory workers (UAW) made around $62K in today’s dollars. Could a heavy machinery mechanic or massage therapist unionize? Well there is the

which has over 400K members in the US and Canada. Biden also had an executive order

which has so far mostly shakily held up under Trump.

However in general Trump and MAGA have been terrible for unions. MAGA considers the union bosses as the enemy and so let’s Trump get away with appointing anti union judges and a host of other anti union policies.

Can a union protect massage therapists against an AI driven, fully automated massage bed?

Can the International Union of Operating Engineers protect a mechanic against AI high precision robotic arms?

Even if unions could protect against automation it would be salary only and not the dignity their members need.

So as with other existential events like climate change, the automation apocalypse is both difficult to solve and a tremendous amount of effort is spent just convincing people it exists. Here’s 2020 automation apocalypse doubter Ezra Klein

(Love the comment “Perfect example of rich, educated, city folk, completely out of touch with the majority.” except that out of touch bit America so hard.)

The following year the Big Think doubled down with this piece:

Epstein likens this future to the propagation of ATMs. Back in the day, pundits predicted that bank tellers would be laid off en masse as the machines took over. But the opposite happened. Banks became more efficient, leading to a trend of more banks opening and more tellers being hired. Today, tellers spend less time counting money (an easy task to automate) and more time building relationships with clients (tasks computers can’t do well).

But here’s what actually happened:

Bank teller employment has transitioned from a period of steady growth during the introduction of ATMs (1980s–2000s) to a sharp decline in the 2010s and 2020s, with a projected 13% decline in the U.S. from 2024 to 2034. While automation initially expanded the role by making it cheaper to open new branches, the rise of digital and mobile banking reduced the need for physical branch visits, reversing this trend.

That projected 13% decline does not include the even further automation that AI will make possible so it will be much higher.

As banks invest less in human tellers things can get stressful and unions are sought for the first time.

Turnover is also a big issue. With five years’ experience, King was the longest tenured worker at his branch. King said the stress — combined with inadequate pay — is a big cause of turnover. “You’re dealing with customers who are on edge, already disgruntled, you’re dealing with people’s money,” said King. “You can have really tough days that take a toll mentally, and you don’t have enough staff to handle it.”

King’s branch voted to join CWA in September 2024. He was fired three months later. The union has filed an unfair labor practice charge alleging it was retaliation for his organizing. King is hopeful he will win his job back.

Can automation explain white no college education voters?

According to exit polls white no degree voters would have elected Cuomo over Mamdani.

Mamdani won solidly with white college educated voters. What gives?

It’s complicated because the NYPD are blue collar workers:

As of early 2025, the NYPD reduced its minimum education requirement for police officers to 24 college credits (down from 60), or a high school diploma/GED with two years of active military or police experience. The department offers a 6-month academy training program, which is counted for 45 college credits.

and Mamdani is wishy washy on NYPD funding levels. Plus there are all sorts of small ways an aggressive mayor looking to balance the budget can reduce blue collar employment.

For instance the NYC Department of Sanitation (DSNY) employs approximately 7,200 uniformed sanitation workers and supervisors, making it the world’s largest sanitation department. However Mamdani is making a big push towards trash bin usage and that’s a first step to further automating garbage collection.

Mamdani plans to increase the minimum wage in NYC but it’s unclear if the city council can legally do that. Mamdani’s position on Waymo automated taxis is similarly unclear with testing licenses expiring but they could be granted at the state level.

Meanwhile Mamdani is clear on protecting immigrants to NYC and that’s not likely to be popular with the cities current blue collar residents. Without open discussion of the automation apocalypse whether blue collar workers believe Mamdani will help them or not just comes down to vibes.

It’s likely in the end that the base of Mamdani’s coalition, young college educated voters, does not want to stop automation.

“New York City leads the nation in reducing traffic deaths, with progress driven by targeted, data-informed street redesigns and targeted enforcement against speeding, red-light running, and other dangerous driving behaviors,” said NYC DOT Commissioner Mike Flynn. “But our work is far from done — because one death is one too many. Under Mayor Mamdani, we’re building on the success of Vision Zero by thinking boldly and acting with urgency to redesign our streets and use every available tool to keep New Yorkers safe.”

New York City prevents red light running primarily through an extensive automated camera program. Plus if “one death is one too many” then ultimately NYC will have to accept Waymo cars that are likely more safe than a human taxi driver.

Similarly what young college educated voter is going to take a stand against automated garbage collection?