# How would a Bernie type do now?
Date: 2026-05-03

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### How would a Bernie type do now?

Are conservatives redeemable?

I explained in the [last blog](https://medium.com/the-polis/the-automation-apocalypse-is-the-existential-event-not-trump-0dd188f899be) why those without a college degree might reject Mamdani but what was their problem with Sanders in 2016?

![Image](https://disrael.github.io/blogs/assets/how-would-a-bernie-type-do-now-823f6de20e.png)

This looks different if you just include younger voters.

![Image](https://disrael.github.io/blogs/assets/how-would-a-bernie-type-do-now-ebf51363de.png)

But, perhaps out of loyalty to Obama, African American people in the south wouldn’t vote for Sanders — even younger voters.

![Image](https://disrael.github.io/blogs/assets/how-would-a-bernie-type-do-now-70828a71a7.png)

In the South Carolina primary, for example, young Black voters (under 30), 80% of whom had at least some college experience, still overwhelmingly favored Clinton (61%) over Sanders (37%).

With Democratic white men Sanders won everywhere — he secured 70% of the white male vote in South Carolina. Stopping Bernie Sanders’ 2016 run was a consolidation of the DNC, the use of super delegates, and an alliance between older white voters and minority communities.

Above is CNN’s report on Ohio as a red state but the reality is different.

![Image](https://disrael.github.io/blogs/assets/how-would-a-bernie-type-do-now-73509be739.png)

First the level of education is increasing dramatically. Second participation in manufacturing is dropping and many of the remaining manufacturing jobs might require more education.

![Image](https://disrael.github.io/blogs/assets/how-would-a-bernie-type-do-now-3068510ccc.png)

The appeal of Make America Great Again for manufacturing is probably played out in Ohio. Ohio’s Christian population is also declining:

> Approximately 64% of Ohio adults identify as Christian, according to 2025 data from the [Pew Research Center’s Religious Landscape Study](https://www.pewresearch.org/religious-landscape-study/state/ohio/). This figure represents a decline from 73% in 2014, with about 29% of Ohioans now identifying as religiously unaffiliated

However the appeal of white supremacy in a state three quarters identifying as white [might not](https://ohiohome.org/research/income-labor-25.aspx) decline:

> The median income for Ohio households with a white householder has also fallen during the same time period, dropping 2.7% from 2021 to 2023 when adjusted for inflation. At the same time, the median household income for Black heads of household grew by 3.6%.

Then there is the “affordability” [issue](https://ohiohome.org/hna-25/executivesummary.html):

> *Over 1.2 million Ohioans (11%) live in a household spending at least half its income on housing*, putting them at risk of losing their homes to foreclosure or eviction.

Progressives like [Graham Platner](https://www.grahamforsenate.com/platform) and [Ro Khanna](https://khanna.house.gov/issues/housing) want federal investment in housing, loans programs, and barring hedge funds from real estate.

![Image](https://disrael.github.io/blogs/assets/how-would-a-bernie-type-do-now-0cb398f641.png)

Bernie Sanders lost the 2016 Ohio Democratic primary to Hillary Clinton, by 56.5% of the vote compared to Sanders’ 42.7%. Pretty much the only reason to vote for Hillary was out of conservative distrust of anything new.

However Ohio is now more educated, less Christian, more desperate, and less likely to be charmed by politicians that offer to keep everything the same or return to the past.